The Proposition. Off a losing season and its first last place finish in almost 40 years in Mike Sherman's first season, Texas A&M will finish in the Big 12 South cellar for the second year in a row.
The Chorus. Every major publication to date -- Phil Steele, Lindy's, Athlon, the Sporting News, USA Today -- has relegated the Aggies to the bottom of the division. Athlon says A&M is "still at least a year away -- and maybe more -- from being relevant in the Big 12 South" and quotes an opposing coach who admits, "I'm not sure it's going to get much better ... Texas A&M just doesn't have the talent it used to have, especially in the trenches."
The Dissent. Football Outsiders, alone among notable prognosticators, picks the Aggies fifth out of six teams in the division, ahead of perennial doormat Baylor -- which, blowout of A&M and near universal optimism aside, was also 2-6 in Big 12 games, the Bears' eleventh last-place finish (including ties) in 12 years.
For the Believers. The Aggies were legitimately as bad last year as any team in the conference: Among major stat categories, they finished last or next to lest in the Big 12 in total offense, scoring offense, rushing offense, total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, pass efficiency defense, turnover margin, sacks and sacks allowed. The once-proud "Wrecking Crew" allowed 40-plus points in seven different games, all losses, and A&M was outscored 156-58 by Oklahoma, Baylor and Texas in the last three games; by every statistical measure, it was one of the worst dozen defenses in the country. As a team, the Aggies lost to Arkansas State and didn't come closer than 18 points to any team that finished with a winning record.
It's hard to see how the defense will improve with eight new starters, but it's even harder to see how it could be worse -- and still, the improvement will have to be dramatic, on the order of cutting points allowed by nearly two touchdowns, if there's any hope of being competitive.
For the Skeptics. There is some hope in the offense, which returns a big, physically imposing quarterback in Jerrod Johnson and two receivers, Ryan Tannehill and Jeff Fuller, who combined for more than 100 catches and 14 touchdowns as freshmen. They may all be overshadowed by incoming running Christine Michael, one of the top freshman prospects in the country, whose recruiting hype suggests he'll quickly emerge as the most feared playmaker on the Aggie offense in years.
The buzz in the spring was that defensive end/linebacker Von Miller, a talented recruit who spurned offers from Florida and Oklahoma in 2007, is finally rounding into that sort of form as a pass rusher.
If Not Texas A&M, Who? Baylor has been the default No. 6 pick in the South every year since the formation of the Big 12, which makes the Aggies' demotion all the more humiliating -- although not nearly humiliating as the 41-7 hole the Bears had A&M in last November before a pair of late, meaningless touchdowns made the final 41-21, only their second loss to Baylor since 1985. Texas A&M has no one on the level of Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin, one of the best young, dynamic playmakers in the country, but despite the "progress" narrative in Waco, A&M is still more talented than the Bears overall and gets them in November in College Station, where BU hasn't won since 1984. That should be the rubber match for the cellar, and possibly for a bowl game, because neither one will be favored to even challenge any of the four division rivals -- Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech -- projected in front of them.
Sages or Suckers? A&M ties for last place last year and was blown out of the water by the team with whom it shared that tie; the prognostoscenti doesn't have many options. This team showed zero positives in Sherman's first year with the occasional exception of the passing game, and even that collapsed in the three-game losing streak, when Johnson threw six interceptions and eventually yielded to the equally ineffective (and now departed) Stephen McGee. There's still enough talent on hand to do more damage against other bad defenses, of which there are a lot in this conference, including Baylor. Avenging last year's disaster against the Bears may get A&M out of rock-bottom, but if that's the highlight of the year, it might not be worth making the distinction.
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